![]() I am very high on the ceiling of this Dolphins team. Sign me up to see how McDaniel utilizes rookie running back De’Von Achane, who’s rare blend of speed and vision initiates flashbacks of former Titans’ running back Chris Johnson. This Dolphins offense will look like it's running on rocket fuel, and got even deeper and faster with WRs Braxton Berrios and Chosen Anderson. Now, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle entering their second year in the system, Miami is more dangerous than ever. In McDaniel’s first year, Tagovailoa was deservedly in the MVP conservation for the first part of the season. That gives them a nice four- or five-game jump from last season. It’s admittedly a big if, but if Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the Dolphins have the upside to win 13 or 14 games. It’s an understatement to say that this bet is strongly tied to the health of Tua Tagovailoa. That's what really gets my juices flowing. My favorite bets usually come with a heavy dose of risk. LeFleur’s resume speaks for itself, and I’m betting it has even more to say this season. LaFleur has won 69% of his games in his four-year career in Green Bay, owning the highest winning percentage among all active head coaches with at least two years experience.Īaron Rodgers will be a talking point all season, and if LaFleur can make the postseason without him, it will carry a ton of weight with the voters. I can’t stress enough the value of getting to learn behind Aaron Rodgers for two years, and now Love gets to play in front of a solid offensive line under the guidance of one of the most successful young head coaches in the league. Jordan Love is a big question mark, but he is walking into a very advantageous situation. Therefore, if there is value with the Packers at 22% implied odds, getting LaFleur for coach of the year at little over 5% implied has to be a bet. I bet the Packers to win the division at +350. We always want to look at the big underdogs whenever there is potential for high-variance outcomes. I am also a believer that the NFC North is as wide open as any division in football. I am a believer in the Packers this year. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images) Matt LaFleur +1800 ![]() Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur watches action during an OTA practice session on May 31. Let’s go with the shortest odds first, and work our way through in that order. Below are my four favorite bets, all of which fall between +1800 and +2200. All three are solid candidates, but I am betting there is better value further down the board. In summary, I want to target the coaches of teams that I expect to outperform their current market projection and push for a playoff spot.Īs we look at the odds for this year’s award over at BetMGM, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell is the betting favorite at +900, followed by the Bears’ Matt Eberflus (+1000), and Broncos Sean Payton (+1100). Can it happen two years straight? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t be looking at coaches like DeMeco Ryans (Houston) or Matt Eberflus (Chicago) unless you think they can get their teams at least nine wins. He had nine wins and a tie, so it’s not like him winning the award was a massive deviation from historical norms. I also think it helps that Daboll has a big personality, and people want to vote for those that they like to be around. Why was Daboll able to break the mold? I can only speculate, but playing in a major market always gives you an edge with voters. ![]() You have to go all the way back to 1990 when Jimmy Johnson led the Cowboys to a 7-9 record, a six-game improvement from their 1-15 nightmare the previous year. The Giants head coach was the first in 33 years to win the award without leading his team to at least 10 wins. That’s where Daboll was a bit of an outlier. You have to win a significant amount of games. However, history shows us improvement isn’t all it takes. New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll was last season’s winner after pulling the previously 4-13 Giants out of the basement and into the postseason in his first year as head coach. It’s one of my favorite markets to bet into during the summer because it’s directly correlated to a team’s unexpected success. How can I position myself to maximize my return? What if the team you are bullish on doesn’t have a high enough ceiling to generate a legit candidate for MVP? Move your eyes over the NFL Coach of the Year awards. You hit all the popular markets: win totals, divisional champs and maybe even Super Bowl odds. ![]() There is no better feeling than discovering an edge, even if it's something as simple as a projection on an NFL team. ![]()
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